Interactive tool
Solo Mining Variance Estimator
See how often a single home Malairte rig would solo-find a block, with realistic percentile bounds for the wait between blocks.
Your share
0.010000%
Expected blocks / day
0.0720
Per month
2.16
Per year
26.3
Time between blocks (solo)
Mining is a Poisson process. Even at the mean rate, individual gaps follow an exponential distribution. Here is what to expect:
- Average wait
- 13.9 days
- Median wait (50/50 coin flip)
- 9.6 days
- 90% chance you've found one by
- 1.1 months
- 99% chance you've found one by
- 2.1 months
Verdict
Solo mining is a slow lottery - expect long stretches of nothing, then occasional full block rewards.
Estimates only. Real waits also depend on network difficulty changes and miner uptime. Pool mining smooths the variance by paying you proportional shares instead.